Ethereum has completed one of its most significant milestone with the successful completion of “The Merge”, the migration to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus. Market participants were expecting an aggressive price action during this event, but the results might be disappointing.
And we finalized!
Happy merge all. This is a big moment for the Ethereum ecosystem. Everyone who helped make the merge happen should feel very proud today.
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) September 15, 2022
At the time of writing, Ethereum (ETH) trades at $1,480 with a 7% and 8% loss in the last 24 hours and 7 days, respectively. The second cryptocurrency failed to consolidate a rally into the previously lost territory, rather the price action seems to be trending to the downside on lower timeframes.
Why “The Merge” Was A No Event For Ethereum
Ethereum was able to approach the $1,800 price market but was rejected from those levels due to two critical macroeconomic events. Trading firm QCP Capital recorded a lack of activity from the market in the days previous to “The Merge”.
In that sense, the event went from operating as a potential price catalyzer to either direction to a “volatility killer”. The most uncertain after about the migration to PoS, the firm believes, was the ETH forks and the miners attempting to claim a portion of the cryptocurrency’s market share.
However, the ETH forks were a “disappointment” as the proponents failed to convince the market about their future and potential to replace ETH PoS. QCP Capital noted:
mkt finally came to terms with ETHW as a potential massive disappointment last wk, following their “totally” whitepaper release (9 pgs of “this page is intentionally left blank”). Coupled with the chain ID debacle, meaning nobody will be able to actually test the chain pre-fork.
Still, the market might experience some volatility as large players unwind their “Merge” positions. QCP Capital concluded:
Longer-term the ETH POS should be bullish, but we are not expecting an immediate breakout move post-merge. We are anticipating a huge pressure on the ETH vols post-merge.
The Macro Outlook
A slowdown in inflation might support the about, QCP Capital believes the upward trajectory for this metric has “peaked and is headed lower”. This might provide crypto and other risk assets with support to bounce from their current levels.
The market is pricing in an aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) which might operate as a bullish factor if the institution hints at a less aggressive monetary policy. At the time of writing, market participants are expecting the Fed to hike interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points (bps).
In the coming months, with a persistent downside trend in inflation, the Fed might finally pivot and the crypto market might rally. Ethereum seems poised to take advantage of a shift in macro-dynamics with the successful “Merge”.